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Worldwide PC shipment growth slipped to 7.9% in the third quarter of the year, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. Overall growth was down from 9.8% in the second quarter and double-digit growth over the prior three years. International shipments continued to expand at roughly 11% year on year, but slow growth in the United States pulled down overall results. Growth in Europe has recovered after a slow second quarter, but a similar adjustment seems to have occurred in the United States during the third quarter. With a dominant share of the U.S. market and in the midst of efforts to refocus its business, Dell felt the brunt of the shortfall with shipments falling nearly 7% year on year in the U.S. Hewlett-Packard was able to leverage strong growth in international markets and relatively strong performance in the United States to boost overall volume incrementally ahead of its rival. Although HP volume was larger by roughly 28 thousand units, on volumes of nearly 10 million, IDC considers this is a statistical tie.
The outlook for growth in the second half of the year has been under some scrutiny as replacement activity has declined and the delayed launch of Vista gets more attention. Spotty growth in some markets contributed to these concerns, but the overall outlook has remained fairly positive.
"This quarter's results show a similar volatility to last quarter, with strong international sales and growth in portables reflecting continued demand while we saw weak results for Dell and the U.S. market overall," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "Dell has had some negative publicity recently regarding its battery recall but it is hard to attribute the third quarter results to bad publicity alone. Dell will likely be very aggressive in the fourth quarter, and we will see how similar battery recalls affect other vendors. These factors may cut into fourth quarter growth, but overall we don't see a broad threat to fourth quarter growth."
"In the U.S. market, the focus continues to be on the transition from desktops to notebooks, with notebook growth being the sole bright spot while desktop shipments continued to decline," said Bob O'Donnell, vice president, Clients and Displays at IDC. "The impact of Dell's decline was particularly acute in the U.S. and led to a shrinking of the market versus the same period last year."
Regional Outlook
United States ¨C Slower than expected growth from Dell, which represents roughly a third of U.S. PC shipments, weighed heavily on growth in the United States. Overall, portables growth slipped quickly into single digits, significantly constraining the primary market driver. Despite disappointing results in the third quarter, IDC expect vendors to step up promotions in the fourth quarter to sustain growth.
EMEA ¨C After a slower second quarter impacted by the World Cup and channel inventory clearance, 3Q06 managed to beat expectations at 10% growth. This growth was driven by a buoyant back-to-school season and continued demand for notebooks, although consumer desktop demand continued to lag despite aggressive promotions in retail channels. Recent demand and a relatively clear channel support a solid outlook for the region.
Japan ¨C The Japanese market suffered another quarter of declining growth as commercial shipments remained flat and consumer volume fell in the face of competition from LCD TVs and other products. Dell continued to grow in solid double-digits year on year while most of its competitors declined. Still, seasonality played an important roll as Dell saw a sequential decline while top competitors saw volume increase from the prior quarter.
Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) ¨C Growth in APeJ remained in double digits, with a strong showing from large regions and market leaders. China met expectations while India and South Korea saw increased demand. |
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